US electricity demand has broadly remained stable since 2008. Over the past decade, average demand growth has been a mere 0.3%, despite real GDP advancing by 2.3% CAGR during the same period. This can be attributed to increasing energy efficiency and low industrial growth. However, we believe we are at an inflection point.
The rising electrification of the economy has been a significant driver, but we now expect additional factors such as AI, data centres, hydrogen, the electrification of transport, and manufacturing reshoring efforts to drive most of the new growth.
Overall, we anticipate a 2.4% CAGR in U.S. electricity demand, with ERCOT (Texas) demand growing by 6.9%.
In this special section, we will examine the demand growth drivers in the US and explore the implications of higher load on new gas power requirements and overall gas market dynamics. We replicate the analysis for ERCOT, which is shown in the Appendix. The conclusion is that higher load growth will most likely benefit gas power OEMs.
Download the full Special section below.
